AGP Executive Report

Regional Diplomacy: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have reopened talks with ECOWAS, agreeing to joint working groups after nearly 21 months apart. Nigeria is pushing to rebuild ties and protect trade and security cooperation. Climate and Livelihoods: A new US$78 million Great Green Wall programme aims to restore 270,000 hectares and support five million people across nine countries, including Nigeria, Ethiopia and Mali. In Tanzania, farmers report better harvests after regenerating trees on their land. Security: Human Rights Watch says Malian forces, allied fighters and insurgents have committed grave abuses against civilians and calls for urgent action. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea also risk escalating, with Washington urging restraint. Economy and Energy: African governments’ push to process minerals at home faces a major hurdle: unreliable, costly electricity. Solar projects in Chad and Kenya offer models for Nigeria’s new distributed-energy fund. Migration: At least 12 people died after a migrant boat sank off Gambia’s coast. Sport: Nigeria’s Golden Eaglets will miss the 2027 U-17 Africa Cup of Nations and World Cup after exiting the WAFU-B tournament.

Horn Tensions: Renewed fighting in Tigray has raised fears of a wider Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged restraint, while a Tigray Peace Force claim that senior TPLF members crossed into Eritrea remains unverified. Sahel Diplomacy: ECOWAS and Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have agreed to form joint working groups and draft a cooperation framework, reopening formal talks after the three countries left the bloc in 2025. Migration Tragedy: At least 12 people died when a migrant boat sank off Gambia; rescue teams are still searching for missing passengers. Refugee Rights: Sudanese refugees in Egypt face uncertainty as the government prepares to take over asylum decisions from the UN, amid reported deportations and raids. African Innovation: Two Kenyan startups won a combined Sh1.3 million to develop AI tools for medical diagnosis and accessible learning.

Red Sea Security: Yemen’s government forces launched a fresh offensive against Houthi positions near Bab al-Mandab, the vital strait linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; fighting continued with no confirmed territorial gains. Horn Tensions: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to show restraint, warning that troop movements along their border risk a wider war. West African Diplomacy: ECOWAS and the Sahel alliance—Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso—agreed to joint working groups to develop a cooperation framework, in their first formal ministerial talks since the three countries left the bloc. Sudan War: At least 114 people were killed in a suspected Egyptian airstrike on an artisanal gold mine near the border, according to a Sudanese rights group. Youth Football: Nigeria’s Golden Eaglets will miss the 2027 U-17 AFCON and World Cup after exiting the WAFU-B championship; the Flamingos also lost their World Cup opener, falling 2-1 to Poland.

West African Diplomacy: ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States agreed in Dakar to form joint working groups and develop a framework for cooperation. Nigeria backed the talks, seeking to preserve regional ties after Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger left the bloc. Horn of Africa Tensions: A TPLF-attributed warning against aircraft movements at Mekelle airport has heightened concern as fighting in Tigray rekindles fears of a wider Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict. Mozambique’s Marine Life: Researchers found that ancient submerged forests off the Bazaruto Archipelago now provide fish and other marine species with reef-like habitat, despite having no coral. Tanzania’s Rail Plans: Tanzania Railways and Egypt’s Arab Contractors will study a proposed 1,000-kilometre line linking Mtwara Port with southern regions and Lake Nyasa. Sahel Security: After losing Kidal, Mali’s separatist rebels are reportedly seeking potential support in Libya and the UAE. Migration Tragedy: At least 12 people died when a migrant boat sank off Gambia’s coast.

Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis: Addis Ababa has appointed a six-month caretaker government and plans elections as renewed fighting unravels the 2022 peace deal. The conflict is heightening fears of a wider war with Eritrea. Migration Tragedy: At least 12 people died when a migrant boat sank off Gambia, adding to deadly risks along African migration routes. West African Diplomacy: Nigeria is helping lead talks between ECOWAS and the Sahel states that left the bloc, with negotiators seeking a framework for renewed cooperation. Regional Trade: Kenya is expanding Mombasa and Lamu ports as cargo volumes grow, while forecasts of heavy rain raise concerns about disruption to East African shipping. Wildlife Crime: Two former Kruger National Park officials received 10-year prison sentences for their roles in a rhino killing.

Horn of Africa: Ethiopia’s renewed fighting in Tigray has shattered the 2022 peace deal. Addis Ababa has appointed a six-month caretaker government, but analysts warn the conflict could widen into war with Eritrea; the US is urging dialogue. Migration: At least 139 people died and 84 remain missing after a boat carrying migrants capsized off Djibouti on its way to Yemen. Experts say preventing further tragedies will require tackling the causes of migration, not just responding to shipwrecks. Sahel Security: Rival jihadist groups JNIM and Islamic State are clashing over territory, adding to insecurity across the region. Food and Climate: Millions face hunger as drought grips Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, while forecasters warn of heavy rain, flooding and landslides in parts of Kenya. African Economies: The IMF has raised its growth outlook for the continent but warns that shrinking aid could deepen pressures on vulnerable countries.

Migration: At least 12 people have died after a migrant boat sank off Gambia; the number missing remains unknown. Tighter patrols farther north have pushed departures onto longer, riskier Atlantic routes. Horn tensions: The United States urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to de-escalate as fighting in northern Ethiopia threatens to unravel a fragile peace. Rights groups report civilian deaths and disrupted health services. Sahel security: Rival al-Qaeda- and Islamic State-linked factions have escalated clashes across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, compounding a conflict that regional governments have struggled to contain. Economic outlook: The IMF raised Africa’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.5%, but warned falling aid leaves countries vulnerable to energy and climate shocks. Energy and environment: South Africa dismissed appeals against TotalEnergies’ offshore exploration plans, while imposing conditions on food security and coastal livelihoods. Trade risks: Black Sea attacks on cargo ships threaten grain routes supplying African markets.

Horn Tensions: Ethiopia and Eritrea traded accusations as reports placed Ethiopian forces near the border. Eritrea asked the African Union to restore its representation in Addis Ababa, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged both sides to de-escalate and return to dialogue. Somalia’s Vote: Somalia’s electoral commission set a presidential election for May 15, 2027, with parliamentary polls scheduled a month earlier, amid opposition criticism of changes that could extend President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term. Regional Conflicts: Mali’s army acknowledged civilian harm after strikes that killed at least eight people, while former DRC president Joseph Kabila joined a new coalition with M23 rebels, complicating peace efforts. Migration Tragedy: At least 139 people died and 84 were reported missing after a migrant boat capsized off Djibouti. Economic and Climate Pressures: Kenya overtook Ethiopia as East Africa’s largest economy in 2025, according to IMF figures, as a weaker birr cut Ethiopia’s GDP in dollar terms. In Ivory Coast, researchers are developing cocoa varieties to withstand erratic rainfall and rising heat.

Horn of Africa Tensions: Ethiopian forces have reached the Eritrean border, raising fears of a new war as regional powers build competing Red Sea alliances. Djibouti Tragedy: At least 139 migrants, including children, died and 84 remain missing after an overcrowded boat capsized off Djibouti; the UN also warns that people fleeing Yemen are straining the country’s capacity. Sudan’s Drone War: Long-range drone attacks are threatening civilian life and the return of people displaced by the war. Food and Climate: Ivory Coast researchers are developing cocoa varieties that can better withstand drought and erratic rainfall, a vital effort for the world’s leading cocoa producer. Morocco’s Phosphate Industry: OCP is seeking foreign investors for a fertiliser hub as higher sulphur costs linked to disruption at the Strait of Hormuz squeeze its finances. Maritime Security: Ghana is urging African countries to share intelligence and coordinate operations against piracy, trafficking and other threats at sea.

Horn of Africa: The US urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to de-escalate, but fears of conflict are growing as Ethiopian troops reach the border and Eritrea appeals to the UN. Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access is adding to tensions. Migration: At least 139 people, including 15 children, died and 84 remain missing after a migrant boat capsized off Djibouti on its way to Yemen. Sahel: At least eight civilians were killed in Malian army strikes on a central village, according to local and security sources. Regional Trade: Egypt and Djibouti signed a protocol to expand trade and improve market access, with a focus on economic ties across the Horn.

Horn of Africa: Ethiopia and Eritrea traded accusations of troop incursions as Ethiopian forces advanced toward the border, raising fears of a wider war. Ethiopia will host the Tana Forum next week as leaders seek African-led paths to peace. DR Congo: A UN envoy sees a “window of opportunity” for peace in the east, but fighting and humanitarian conditions are worsening. Migration and Hunger: At least 139 people died and 84 are missing after a migrant boat capsized off Djibouti. Millions across Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and the Sahel also face deepening hunger, the WFP warns. Regional Security: Nigeria’s security adviser says terrorist groups are using AI, drones, social media and cryptocurrency to recruit, finance and coordinate attacks, urging stronger regional cooperation. Energy: Climate activists protested new oil and gas exploration at African Energy Week in Cape Town, while a 10-year solar deal will power a Lagos station serving the Africa Coast to Europe cable.

Horn of Africa: Ethiopian troops have advanced to the Eritrean border as fighting in Tigray intensifies, raising fears of a wider war. The UN Security Council held fresh consultations, while Somalia says it will remain neutral. Migration Tragedy: At least 139 people died and 84 are missing after a migrant boat capsized off Djibouti, underscoring the deadly risks of the route to Yemen. Food Crisis: More than 13 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia face severe hunger as drought deepens; the UN also warns that millions across the Sahel face hunger and displacement. Eastern DRC: A UN envoy sees a chance for peace, but fighting continues despite international diplomacy and ceasefire efforts. Regional Security: African officials warn that armed groups in West Africa and the Sahel are using social media, mobile money and cryptocurrency to recruit, raise funds and coordinate attacks. North Africa: Spain’s king visited Ceuta amid strained ties with Morocco after July’s mass migration crisis, reaffirming Spanish sovereignty while calling for good neighbourly relations.

Djibouti Shipwreck: At least 139 migrants, including 15 children, died and 84 remain missing after an overcrowded boat carrying 305 people capsized off Djibouti while heading to Yemen. Horn of Africa Tensions: Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of incursions into Tigray as renewed fighting and drone strikes fuel fears of a wider regional war. South Africa: Anti-migrant protests turned violent, with cars torched and shops looted; the government withdrew a disputed asylum-processing directive. Refugee Aid: UNHCR says it has received just $3 billion of the $8.5 billion needed this year, putting protection and services at risk in Sudan, Chad and Ethiopia. Regional Connections: An African Union plan to make cross-border flights more direct could cut travel times and costs, but only 19% of intra-African routes currently have direct service. Ethiopia’s Economy: The country has opened its first gold refinery, backed by a $50 million investment.

Djibouti Shipwreck: At least 139 migrants, including 15 children, died and 84 remain missing after an overcrowded boat carrying more than 300 people capsized off Djibouti on the route to Yemen. Survivors are receiving care in Obock. Horn of Africa Tensions: Ethiopia and Eritrea are trading accusations of aggression as fears of renewed conflict grow. Somalia says it remains neutral, despite joining Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea in a declaration on Red Sea security and regional disputes. Sahel Security: France has expelled two Nigerien intelligence officers, underscoring the breakdown in security cooperation as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso strengthen ties with Russia. Sudan Border Insecurity: At least 72 gold mine workers were reportedly killed in an air strike near the Egyptian border, according to a Sudanese rights group. Egypt has not commented. Nigeria’s Fisheries: Nigeria and Norway plan to use satellite vessel tracking to detect illegal fishing and protect local livelihoods.

Djibouti Shipwreck: At least 139 migrants, including 15 children, died when an overcrowded boat bound for Yemen capsized off Djibouti; 84 people remain missing and about 82 survived. The IOM says the disaster is among the deadliest on the Horn of Africa migration route. Ghana Football: The Black Stars sit bottom of their 2027 AFCON qualifying group after defeats to Ivory Coast and The Gambia. Sports officials are calling for accountability as an interim team prepares for next month’s matches against Somalia. Horn Tensions: Ethiopia and Eritrea are trading accusations over military incursions, raising fears of renewed conflict as Egypt builds ties around the Red Sea. South Africa Unrest: Anti-migrant protests have turned violent, with police reporting 24 vehicles burned and shops looted. Great Lakes Trade: Tanzania’s Kigoma regional commissioner urged traders to use the area’s position as a gateway to Great Lakes markets. Conservation: South Africa has declared a 10,225-hectare national park in the Eastern Cape to protect grasslands, biodiversity and an important water source.

Djibouti Shipwreck: At least 139 people, including 15 children, died when an overcrowded boat carrying 305 migrants capsized en route to Yemen. Eighty-four remain missing as rescue teams search the coast; survivors were Ethiopian nationals. The IOM says poverty, insecurity and climate pressures drive many to risk the crossing. Horn of Africa Tensions: UN chief António Guterres called for an immediate halt to fighting in northern Ethiopia and warned against regional escalation. Ethiopia and Eritrea are trading accusations at the UN, while Eritrea seeks sanctions against Ethiopia, putting the 2022 peace deal under further strain. Regional Tourism: Uganda and Kenya plan joint holiday packages and easier cross-border travel, aiming to grow visitor numbers and tourism revenue.**